Unemployment and HPI

With the unemployment rate reaching historic highs, we have received inquiries on implementing scenarios that contain unemployment and HPI forecasts. For models that accept macroeconomic variables such as Unemployment and HPI, users can leverage our built-in fields to specify their own static or vector assumptions. Click here for more information.

The PolyPaths Unemployment field can be used within the Espiel Multifamily model, ADCO HPI model, as well as in custom models implemented through our Prepay/Loss API. This field can be set in the base case or provided on a scenario-specific basis to easily gauge the impact of different unemployment forecasts. Since these can be time-varying, such assumptions can include a short-term spike, stabilizing to a lower long term rate over a user-specified horizon.

Similarly the HPI field also accepts static or vector input. It can be used to specify the HPI as an annualized percentage rate to the Espiel, ADCO, or custom models. PolyPaths Sector Rules functionality can optionally be layered in to model different forecasts at any granular level such as at the state level. Please see our Sector Rules Webinar at the 21 minute mark for an example.

For help in setting up these scenarios, please email us at support@polypaths.com.